Alejandra Borunda

That is a great question, Emily. And basically in short, for many years now, but especially since this big special report by a bunch of scientists in 2018, scientists have warned that the risks of global warming could get substantially worse overnight. Once we go past that level of warming, that 1.5 C. Okay. This is Lila Warjawski.

She's a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

She's a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

She's a researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany.

So what she's talking about here is just that, like, you get past 1.5 and you get more of the bad stuff that we're already getting. Heat waves that are even more intense than those we're having now, which is kind of terrifying, honestly. Or stronger hurricanes, that kind of stuff. Yeah, I mean, no one wants stronger hurricanes, the ones this season were truly devastating. Yeah, exactly.

So what she's talking about here is just that, like, you get past 1.5 and you get more of the bad stuff that we're already getting. Heat waves that are even more intense than those we're having now, which is kind of terrifying, honestly. Or stronger hurricanes, that kind of stuff. Yeah, I mean, no one wants stronger hurricanes, the ones this season were truly devastating. Yeah, exactly.

So what she's talking about here is just that, like, you get past 1.5 and you get more of the bad stuff that we're already getting. Heat waves that are even more intense than those we're having now, which is kind of terrifying, honestly. Or stronger hurricanes, that kind of stuff. Yeah, I mean, no one wants stronger hurricanes, the ones this season were truly devastating. Yeah, exactly.

And I think the other thing is that there's some even more alarming possibilities once we go past 1.5. Like, for example, if the Greenland ice sheet melts too much, the melt can actually become unstoppable. There's these processes that keep on going no matter what we do after that.

And I think the other thing is that there's some even more alarming possibilities once we go past 1.5. Like, for example, if the Greenland ice sheet melts too much, the melt can actually become unstoppable. There's these processes that keep on going no matter what we do after that.

And I think the other thing is that there's some even more alarming possibilities once we go past 1.5. Like, for example, if the Greenland ice sheet melts too much, the melt can actually become unstoppable. There's these processes that keep on going no matter what we do after that.

I used to have a professor back in climate science grad school, and he just, he always would say that we're just running the world's biggest science experiment. Like, let's see what happens when you pump the atmosphere full of carbon dioxide. Let's all stick around to find out.

I used to have a professor back in climate science grad school, and he just, he always would say that we're just running the world's biggest science experiment. Like, let's see what happens when you pump the atmosphere full of carbon dioxide. Let's all stick around to find out.

I used to have a professor back in climate science grad school, and he just, he always would say that we're just running the world's biggest science experiment. Like, let's see what happens when you pump the atmosphere full of carbon dioxide. Let's all stick around to find out.

We are pretty close. If you use the methods laid out in the IPCC, and that's the big scientific consensus report that comes out every few years, that tells us that we're at 1.3 Celsius of warming.

We are pretty close. If you use the methods laid out in the IPCC, and that's the big scientific consensus report that comes out every few years, that tells us that we're at 1.3 Celsius of warming.

We are pretty close. If you use the methods laid out in the IPCC, and that's the big scientific consensus report that comes out every few years, that tells us that we're at 1.3 Celsius of warming.

Yeah. And I just want to be clear, that method has an issue. It's fundamentally backwards looking. Oh. It averages the observed temperature data from the last 10 years with models that look forward the same amount. But baked into that approach is this reality that it won't actually show us crossing 1.5 until a few years after that's already happened.

Yeah. And I just want to be clear, that method has an issue. It's fundamentally backwards looking. Oh. It averages the observed temperature data from the last 10 years with models that look forward the same amount. But baked into that approach is this reality that it won't actually show us crossing 1.5 until a few years after that's already happened.

Yeah. And I just want to be clear, that method has an issue. It's fundamentally backwards looking. Oh. It averages the observed temperature data from the last 10 years with models that look forward the same amount. But baked into that approach is this reality that it won't actually show us crossing 1.5 until a few years after that's already happened.

Yeah, and you have identified something that many scientists are now working on because they also want to know more quickly. A new study actually just came out right before the COP meeting that uses an approach that is a little more snapshot-y, and it says we're probably closer to 1.4 C.