Alejandra Borunda

I used to have a professor back in climate science grad school, and he just, he always would say that we're just running the world's biggest science experiment. Like, let's see what happens when you pump the atmosphere full of carbon dioxide. Let's all stick around to find out.

I used to have a professor back in climate science grad school, and he just, he always would say that we're just running the world's biggest science experiment. Like, let's see what happens when you pump the atmosphere full of carbon dioxide. Let's all stick around to find out.

We are pretty close. If you use the methods laid out in the IPCC, and that's the big scientific consensus report that comes out every few years, that tells us that we're at 1.3 Celsius of warming.

We are pretty close. If you use the methods laid out in the IPCC, and that's the big scientific consensus report that comes out every few years, that tells us that we're at 1.3 Celsius of warming.

We are pretty close. If you use the methods laid out in the IPCC, and that's the big scientific consensus report that comes out every few years, that tells us that we're at 1.3 Celsius of warming.

Yeah. And I just want to be clear, that method has an issue. It's fundamentally backwards looking. Oh. It averages the observed temperature data from the last 10 years with models that look forward the same amount. But baked into that approach is this reality that it won't actually show us crossing 1.5 until a few years after that's already happened.

Yeah. And I just want to be clear, that method has an issue. It's fundamentally backwards looking. Oh. It averages the observed temperature data from the last 10 years with models that look forward the same amount. But baked into that approach is this reality that it won't actually show us crossing 1.5 until a few years after that's already happened.

Yeah. And I just want to be clear, that method has an issue. It's fundamentally backwards looking. Oh. It averages the observed temperature data from the last 10 years with models that look forward the same amount. But baked into that approach is this reality that it won't actually show us crossing 1.5 until a few years after that's already happened.

Yeah, and you have identified something that many scientists are now working on because they also want to know more quickly. A new study actually just came out right before the COP meeting that uses an approach that is a little more snapshot-y, and it says we're probably closer to 1.4 C.

Yeah, and you have identified something that many scientists are now working on because they also want to know more quickly. A new study actually just came out right before the COP meeting that uses an approach that is a little more snapshot-y, and it says we're probably closer to 1.4 C.

Yeah, and you have identified something that many scientists are now working on because they also want to know more quickly. A new study actually just came out right before the COP meeting that uses an approach that is a little more snapshot-y, and it says we're probably closer to 1.4 C.

And I just, I know that sounds scary, but to be clear, that's not really how anyone thinks about this. It's just one year. And scientists know that temperatures bop around a lot because of things like El Nino or just like a randomly hot year. And so that's why they do that approach that looks at the longer term averages in the first place. But it's also not a great sign.

And I just, I know that sounds scary, but to be clear, that's not really how anyone thinks about this. It's just one year. And scientists know that temperatures bop around a lot because of things like El Nino or just like a randomly hot year. And so that's why they do that approach that looks at the longer term averages in the first place. But it's also not a great sign.

And I just, I know that sounds scary, but to be clear, that's not really how anyone thinks about this. It's just one year. And scientists know that temperatures bop around a lot because of things like El Nino or just like a randomly hot year. And so that's why they do that approach that looks at the longer term averages in the first place. But it's also not a great sign.

It's so hard because the reality is warming past 1.5 really does present these real existential threats to a lot of people around the world. Like the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu, for example, it could literally end up underwater if sea levels rise too far. And that's a real risk. The farther warming gets past 1.5 C. Here's Abraham Nassak in their Ministry of Climate Change.

It's so hard because the reality is warming past 1.5 really does present these real existential threats to a lot of people around the world. Like the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu, for example, it could literally end up underwater if sea levels rise too far. And that's a real risk. The farther warming gets past 1.5 C. Here's Abraham Nassak in their Ministry of Climate Change.

It's so hard because the reality is warming past 1.5 really does present these real existential threats to a lot of people around the world. Like the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu, for example, it could literally end up underwater if sea levels rise too far. And that's a real risk. The farther warming gets past 1.5 C. Here's Abraham Nassak in their Ministry of Climate Change.

Yeah, but I think it's also important to know that passing that 1.5 level, it's not like falling off a cliff. It's more like we're playing a dice game that gets more and more loaded. Like the probability that bad things happen gets higher. Yeah, exactly.

Yeah, but I think it's also important to know that passing that 1.5 level, it's not like falling off a cliff. It's more like we're playing a dice game that gets more and more loaded. Like the probability that bad things happen gets higher. Yeah, exactly.

Yeah, but I think it's also important to know that passing that 1.5 level, it's not like falling off a cliff. It's more like we're playing a dice game that gets more and more loaded. Like the probability that bad things happen gets higher. Yeah, exactly.