Alex Imas

But one of the things that you got from that survey was they're very much aligned.

Okay.

Right.

So economists, at least the ones who are actually working and thinking about the technology, they think there will be a big impact as far as capabilities.

And there will be some impact on the labor market, not astronomical.

And we're talking about like 2030, 2050 and things like that.

There's gonna be substantial capability increases, but the growth is gonna be pretty moderate.

It's like an extra two, 3%.

And the really interesting thing for me from that survey was that the technologists were kind of a bit more optimistic than that, as far as both the productivity growth and kind of some were kind of thinking that there will be much more unemployment.

But for the most part, the two groups kind of agreed.

I was personally surprised by that survey.

And this came out, I think, last week or two weeks ago.

I thought that there was going to be a lot more daylight between the two groups.

So the exposure measures, they came from this literature, but mainly this one paper by Daniel Rock and Pamela Mishkin and co-authors that was published in Science called, one of the greatest titles is GPTs are GPTs.

GPT, you know what GPT is, but GPT in the second term is called general purpose technology.

There, they basically started mapping jobs as being exposed to AI.

But it's really important to understand what that number means.

That number means that AI could do 50% of a task, right?

And how many tasks are in the job that AI can do 50% or more of, right?

So there's a couple things in that statement.