Alex Imas
π€ SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Exactly.
So long-run elasticity is higher than short-run elasticity.
But even in the long run, so agriculture famously is the example where we can produce way more food if we dedicated the same portion of the economy that we dedicated to agriculture.
We're already producing more food regardless, but we could produce even more food if the same portion of the economy that was producing food 100 years ago was currently producing food.
But you eat enough and then you're done.
And so the claim with software is that it is not some inherent property
of markets that as it gets cheaper, you'll just keep wanting more of it.
Absolutely not.
The thing about software is this is a particular kind of good, whereas it gets cheaper, we'll want more and more of it.
And it's also highly relevant, and you wrote an essay about this.
A lot of this podcast is me summarizing your essays back to you, that there's this very viral...
scenario planning about the future by Citrini, where they're predicting as a result of automation, as a result of very powerful AI, there will be a recession because white collar workers will get automated.
Their salaries, which were paying for a bunch of things, will no longer be available.
And so there'll be a slump.
Do you want to recapitulate why this might be implausible?
And then you can get negative growth, which is like... And the crucial thing is even if we don't want more shit, the world in which there's a singularity and we don't want to invest more money is crazy, right?
Where we're not like, let's build more data centers, let's build more fabs.
Even though we have AGI, we're not like...
investing in more data centers to run the AGI.
And that's like driving more economic growth.