Alex Turnbull

I mean, you know, January when there was, you would say BYD cars, for example, a couple of dealers in Australia, Singapore, other parts of Asia, they would,

be on the lot for 25 plus days.

You know, the inventory turns were kind of a bit slow and the market did look kind of glutted.

We're down to single digit days in most places now.

So anything China can produce out of the EV sector, I think will get sold this year.

That's just really the constraint is on the supply side, not on the demand side now.

Yeah, yeah.

To a certain extent, yeah.

I mean, it's also, there's also a very hard,

analytic math behind this in the sense that there are the Straits of Hormuz do not, aside from the east-west pipeline, which looks like it got pretty badly hit today over the last 24, 48 hours, there is no way for that oil to make its way out otherwise.

So this is very different to 2022 where you have sanctions, you have this and that, but the spice will flow if it can physically move.

pipelines by rail or what have you.

And so in 2022, I was pretty sanguine about the impacts on the oil market because Russia's got a lot of pipeline capacity to China, through Kazakhstan, and there was clearly not really the appetite to do full-on shadow fleet sanctions that would be required to slow it down.

In this case, you actually just can't get it out.

That's all there is to it.

And so if you look at that vulnerability with oil, where 20 plus percent of the market comes from the Middle East and LNG, which is about the same numbers.

And then you look at, say, a big network flow graph model of the global coal market, which I've done.

The coal is not really dependent upon choke points.

But the biggest producers are places like, you know, first of all, China produces an enormous amount domestically.

It's the world's largest producer.