Alexander Osipovich

So, for example, Polymarket has a market on whether the U.S.

will strike Iran by the end of June of this year.

That jumped after the attack on Venezuela this weekend.

Recently, Wednesday afternoon, it was at 34%.

And why users can't get enough of LinkedIn.

Prediction markets are actually a pretty simple idea.

They are a marketplace where people can bet on future events.

The way it works is they will allow you to bet on a yes or no question about some future thing happening.

Like, will Donald Trump pick Kevin Hassett to be his next Federal Reserve chief?

And you can buy a contract saying, yes, this will happen or no, it won't happen.

If you are right, you get a dollar per contract.

So the price of each contract is in cents and it reflects the probability that people assess of that event.

So if the contract for Trump picking Hassett is currently at 60 cents, that reflects a 60% probability in the wisdom of polymarket better.

Yes, there is some interest in these markets on U.S.

military action.

And one thing that you can see in the data is that after the U.S.

launched the strike against Venezuela and seized President Maduro, other countries started to seem like potential targets too.

So for example, Polymarket has a market on whether the U.S.

will strike Iran by the end of June of this year.

jumped after the attack on Venezuela this weekend.