Alexander Osipovich
speaker
97 appearances
7 recordings
2 series
first heard Dec 2024
last heard 28 Aug
Alexander Osipovich’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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recordings per month · last 12 monthsRecordings per month over the last 12 months — 5 in all, peaking in Aug 2026 with 2.
Appearances
It is drawing some lines.
The proposal, as we understand it, would basically allow sports betting via prediction markets
But there are some caveats to that.
For instance, there are certain types of mini sports betting contracts that would likely be off limits.
For instance, betting on player injuries, because you can just imagine that that would create perverse incentives if you let people bet on something like that.
Yes, the CFTC has indicated that it's uncomfortable with betting contracts on prediction markets where a very, very small number of people could influence the outcome.
But the broader project of having CFTC-regulated federal sports bets on prediction markets seems like it will get a green light from these regulators.
the CFTC with this proposal coming today is going to take a pretty hard line on contracts on war, terrorism, or assassination, because again, the perverse incentives that those could create, and also the risk of information leakage.
I mean, you can imagine a national security insider who knows about some sort of military operation wanting to go and bet on a war market.
So that creates all sorts of interesting risks there.
The CFTC is likely to take hard line against those, but mechanically the way this works is that any contract that a prediction market wants to list kind of comes up for review and the CFTC needs to essentially strike it down if it considers it against the public interest after carrying out a review.
These proposals are sort of guidelines that the CFTC plans to follow in carrying out those reviews.
They're hoping that this will be kind of a set of guideposts for prediction markets as they figure out what's kosher to list and what's not.
This space is moving very fast.
Two years ago in the US, we did not have legal sports betting on prediction markets.
We did not have legal election betting on prediction markets.
Under the Trump administration, these prediction markets have basically felt empowered to list all sorts of things that before were considered kind of a gray area or even off limits.
Regulators are just now really beginning to grapple with this.
the COTC's proposals coming imminently are a first step in that direction, but there will likely be more regulations.
What we're basically seeing is a new body of financial regulation take shape.
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