Alexander Osipovich

Recently, Wednesday afternoon, it was at 34%.

So keep that in mind.

Yeah, it's not just Iran.

It's not immediately obvious.

A new Polymarket account created in late December put down tens of thousands of dollars, mostly on a market on whether Maduro would be out as the leader of Venezuela by the end of January.

This trader ended up making more than $400,000.

And what's super interesting is that many of this trader's bets were placed just hours before the attack, around the time, in fact, just before Trump gave the final order sending the military in.

The interesting thing here is that prediction markets kind of have two purposes.

One is that they are kind of barometer of the likelihood of future events.

Ideally, you want to have well-informed people trading on them, putting skin in the game.

That is ideally, according to the vision of prediction markets, the way that you get truth.

But the other side of that coin is that you could have people who have genuine inside knowledge who jump into these markets, trade on that, make them more accurate in doing so, but also take advantage of other people who are not as well informed.

And that is why we have laws against insider trading in the stock market.

In 16th century Rome, there was quite a thriving culture of placing wagers on the results of papal conclaves. And this led to a very thriving rumor mill called where information would leak out of the conclave and things got kind of out of hand. Bookies and brokers were accused of manipulating the markets.

In 16th century Rome, there was quite a thriving culture of placing wagers on the results of papal conclaves. And this led to a very thriving rumor mill called where information would leak out of the conclave and things got kind of out of hand. Bookies and brokers were accused of manipulating the markets.

There were also allegations of insider trading by people close to the cardinals who knew what was going on. Eventually, the papacy cracked down on this, and in 1591, Pope Gregory XIV issued a papal bull that banned wagering on papal elections on penalty of excommunication.

There were also allegations of insider trading by people close to the cardinals who knew what was going on. Eventually, the papacy cracked down on this, and in 1591, Pope Gregory XIV issued a papal bull that banned wagering on papal elections on penalty of excommunication.

Bitcoin definitely has a history of crashing in spectacular fashion after hitting records.

Bitcoin definitely has a history of crashing in spectacular fashion after hitting records.

Bitcoin definitely has a history of crashing in spectacular fashion after hitting records.