Alice Han

A lot of countries are very worried about Chinese overcapacity and China basically flooding the markets with cheap goods that it can do cheaper because it's got the scalability, it's got the cheap logistics infrastructure, and labor is still very, very competitive compared to these developed economies.

Well, I think the 10% we'll take that first is pretty manageable. It's certainly less than trade war one of a pressure on China. China responded to that pretty quickly by devaluing the currency. That is probably what it will do if tariffs get worse. It devalued at about 10% over the course of 2018 to 19 in trade war one. That is number one, what they'll do.

Well, I think the 10% we'll take that first is pretty manageable. It's certainly less than trade war one of a pressure on China. China responded to that pretty quickly by devaluing the currency. That is probably what it will do if tariffs get worse. It devalued at about 10% over the course of 2018 to 19 in trade war one. That is number one, what they'll do.

Well, I think the 10% we'll take that first is pretty manageable. It's certainly less than trade war one of a pressure on China. China responded to that pretty quickly by devaluing the currency. That is probably what it will do if tariffs get worse. It devalued at about 10% over the course of 2018 to 19 in trade war one. That is number one, what they'll do.

Number two is more fiscal stimulus to offset some of the impact if the tariffs are increased beyond 10%. And number three is to continue to redirect trade outside of the U.S. Now, even although we've seen the U.S., and this is astonishing to even cite, U.S.-China trade deficit has increased from $180 billion back when Trade War I was signed, so 2019, to around $360 billion as of right now.

Number two is more fiscal stimulus to offset some of the impact if the tariffs are increased beyond 10%. And number three is to continue to redirect trade outside of the U.S. Now, even although we've seen the U.S., and this is astonishing to even cite, U.S.-China trade deficit has increased from $180 billion back when Trade War I was signed, so 2019, to around $360 billion as of right now.

Number two is more fiscal stimulus to offset some of the impact if the tariffs are increased beyond 10%. And number three is to continue to redirect trade outside of the U.S. Now, even although we've seen the U.S., and this is astonishing to even cite, U.S.-China trade deficit has increased from $180 billion back when Trade War I was signed, so 2019, to around $360 billion as of right now.

And that effectively is almost a doubling of that deficit over time. But at the same time, China has increased its exposure to the rest of the world. It's redirected trade either through re-exporting hubs like Mexico and Vietnam or exporting to new markets. This is why China's Global South Initiative is something we should pay attention to because it realizes that countries in the U.S.,

And that effectively is almost a doubling of that deficit over time. But at the same time, China has increased its exposure to the rest of the world. It's redirected trade either through re-exporting hubs like Mexico and Vietnam or exporting to new markets. This is why China's Global South Initiative is something we should pay attention to because it realizes that countries in the U.S.,

And that effectively is almost a doubling of that deficit over time. But at the same time, China has increased its exposure to the rest of the world. It's redirected trade either through re-exporting hubs like Mexico and Vietnam or exporting to new markets. This is why China's Global South Initiative is something we should pay attention to because it realizes that countries in the U.S.,

even in the EU, are very worried about Chinese overcapacity. They will use trade measures to tariff or sanction Chinese goods. So they need to find alternative markets, both to re-export but also to export to. And another fun fact is that the Chinese trade surplus with the rest of the world has gone up to almost a trillion. As of last year, so $992 billion.

even in the EU, are very worried about Chinese overcapacity. They will use trade measures to tariff or sanction Chinese goods. So they need to find alternative markets, both to re-export but also to export to. And another fun fact is that the Chinese trade surplus with the rest of the world has gone up to almost a trillion. As of last year, so $992 billion.

even in the EU, are very worried about Chinese overcapacity. They will use trade measures to tariff or sanction Chinese goods. So they need to find alternative markets, both to re-export but also to export to. And another fun fact is that the Chinese trade surplus with the rest of the world has gone up to almost a trillion. As of last year, so $992 billion.

And I don't think that's going to stop anytime soon. It goes back to your question, Ed, about disinflation or deflation. China needs more exports, not less, because its internal domestic demand is so weak.

And I don't think that's going to stop anytime soon. It goes back to your question, Ed, about disinflation or deflation. China needs more exports, not less, because its internal domestic demand is so weak.

And I don't think that's going to stop anytime soon. It goes back to your question, Ed, about disinflation or deflation. China needs more exports, not less, because its internal domestic demand is so weak.

Yeah, I would broadly agree with that. I think Trump, even although his instinct is right to try to rebalance the trade deficit with China, he's using a hammer rather than a scalpel. So he's effectively going to a list of countries that he thinks that are running a surplus or US is running a deficit with those countries and trying to use tariffs to attack them. The same is the case with China.

Yeah, I would broadly agree with that. I think Trump, even although his instinct is right to try to rebalance the trade deficit with China, he's using a hammer rather than a scalpel. So he's effectively going to a list of countries that he thinks that are running a surplus or US is running a deficit with those countries and trying to use tariffs to attack them. The same is the case with China.

Yeah, I would broadly agree with that. I think Trump, even although his instinct is right to try to rebalance the trade deficit with China, he's using a hammer rather than a scalpel. So he's effectively going to a list of countries that he thinks that are running a surplus or US is running a deficit with those countries and trying to use tariffs to attack them. The same is the case with China.

What I think people have realized with DeepSeek, and it goes to people like Marc Andreessen and even clients that I advise, is that China has created an alternative ecosystem for the hardware and software. The stack is completely produced in China because of the tariffs and sanctions that have been put into place since the Trump administration.