Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Right now, he's gotten rid of his most experienced military commanders and generals. He doesn't have the operational experience or combat readiness now to go in and take Taiwan, let alone do a quarantine or a blockade. So I think this probably delays a Taiwan showdown for the next couple of years. Welcome to China Decode. I'm Alice Han.
And I'm James King.
In today's episode of China Decode, we're discussing Xi's purge at the top and the shock to China's military command, TikTok after China, plus I'll chat with Song Houzi about China's economic reality. That's all coming up. But first, let's do a quick check in with how the Chinese markets are starting the week. On Monday, the Shanghai A share index closed down 0.1%.
The Hang Seng 8 share index rose less than 0.1%, ending the day slightly in the green despite starting the day down nearly a full percentage point. Precious metals mining company Zijin Mining Group closed up more than 4% as investors around the world rushed to buy gold and other safe haven assets.
And Hong Kong property companies, Hongkai Properties, Hang Long Properties and CK Asset Holdings all rose more than 3% after a Morgan Stanley analyst published a bullish outlook on the Hong Kong housing market. But we'll get right into the first topic. China just detonated the top of its military command.
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Chapter 2: What triggered Xi Jinping's military purge in China?
The PLA has over 2 million soldiers and 4 million if you include paramilitary and reserves. The PLA Navy has the world's largest navy with over 780 ships and vessels. And the Chinese military has around 600 nuclear missiles, including those that are launched by land, sea, and air. And some of these missiles are powerful enough to reach the entire territory of the United States.
So like I say, I don't want to exceed what we know, but what it seems to be the case here is that we have one man in charge of the world's largest military. And this military is obviously a rival to the US and to other countries in the West. So I'd leave it at there, Alison, throw it back to you for your take on this. I mean, you know, it is complex, obviously, and it's delicate as well.
What would you say?
Extremely delicate. I definitely agree with you on that front, James. And it's funny, I highlighted the same section because I think the wording of it is so precise and so idiosyncratic. The wording of trampling on the responsibility system of the chairman of the CMC. That is wording that I haven't seen in previous investigations of other generals that have been purged.
We've had a total of 17 generals purged. in the PLA since Xi Jinping came to power in 2012. That is the largest purging at the general level since Chairman Mao. And that is a significant indication of his not just anti-corruption drive through the military, but his unhappiness potentially with the loyalty and unity of his generals.
Now, I suspect, as you do, James, that this is a personal matter, and we haven't dove into it, but what is interesting to me is that Zhang Youxia, he is a brother, not in the literal sense, but a brother in the sense of coming from the same hometown, Shanxi, to Xi Jinping. Their fathers were comrades who fought in the civil war in the 1940s in China. and were also Sanxing natives.
This is a guy, General Zhang, who has been a long-time childhood friend and close ally to Xi Jinping. Xi Jinping kept him around after 2022, even though General Zhang had already reached the retirement age. He was 72 at the time because he believed he needed a close, confident ally in the military. And so Zhang was effectively the second-in-command at the CMC.
The CMC is a central military commission. Just for context, it is both a state and a party organ that oversees both the PLA as well as the police, the People's Armed Police and the militia.
So this is an extremely important decision-making body that has the powers to decide the military operations, procurement campaigns, and would be completely germane in a Taiwan context, which I'll get to in just a bit.
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Chapter 3: How does this military purge affect China's power dynamics?
sort of lurking risks in the Chinese system that now that it's come to the fore, I think it at least deserves a good look at.
Yeah, certainly. I think the gold story might be more associated with American waning influence and dollar weakness. Maybe it's a risk-off attitude that people have to U.S. assets.
But to sort of add to what we were discussing about power and the military, I think it can't be overstated how important this is and how, I hate using this word, but I have to use it, unprecedented this is in modern Chinese history. I don't think, I was looking back into previous episodes of this podcast going as far back into the 1940s.
And the only other real analog is what happened during the Great Leap Forward, as well as the Cultural Revolution, with two key generals, Peng Dehuai and Lin Biao, who were both really close to Mao Zedong, but were effectively purged and killed. And this was again succeeded by a massive purging of the PLA by Chairman Mao. So I think history is repeating in certain respects.
And my big takeaway is that this suggests that she feels... insecure about the combat readiness and about the loyalty of the military advisors and guys around him. And this should be seen as a sign of weakness, at least from my perspective. But it certainly, to your point, James, is going to be really, really crucial in terms of the Taiwan probabilities and Taiwan scenarios.
I think we may disagree there. I think it probably gets delayed by a couple of years, but certainly we need to keep our ears to the ground in terms of seeing who comes in as the new guard.
Yeah, absolutely. I was also thinking about Lin Biao. I mean, you know, he was purged after he attempted to assassinate Chairman Mao by sabotaging the train that Chairman Mao was riding on in the early 1970s. So, you know, this type of thing does happen in China. I think most of these stories we simply never hear about. So, you know, that's my kind of payoff line in this. The
that it really is so hard for anyone to find out what the true situation is and what the true stories are behind, in this case, the downfall of Jiang Youxia, Xi Jinping's old friend and comrade in arms, as they say.
Yeah, exactly. Okay, we'll be back with more after a quick break. Stay with us.
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