Alice Han

I would say, Scott, the state of the economy is a story of two really divergent Chinese pathways. Number one is what I would call a structural macro slowdown, and that is driven, as you mentioned, Scott, by these challenges, the real estate sector being one of them, but also the fact that Private consumption remains remarkably weak, only 40% of GDP compared to 70% or more in the US.

And it's structurally going to be very challenging for the government to try to rapidly rebalance and increase the consumption share of GDP, which I'll get to in just a bit. But its over-reliance on exports, I think, will remain a theme moving forward. It needs to have that export engine, the overcapacity engine, to maintain growth.

And it's structurally going to be very challenging for the government to try to rapidly rebalance and increase the consumption share of GDP, which I'll get to in just a bit. But its over-reliance on exports, I think, will remain a theme moving forward. It needs to have that export engine, the overcapacity engine, to maintain growth.

And it's structurally going to be very challenging for the government to try to rapidly rebalance and increase the consumption share of GDP, which I'll get to in just a bit. But its over-reliance on exports, I think, will remain a theme moving forward. It needs to have that export engine, the overcapacity engine, to maintain growth.

As long as it has these GDP targets, it will need to have a degree of overcapacity. And I think in this environment of weak and low interest rates, which are favoring the exporters, this is going to continue the financial repression story that we've seen for households for decades.

As long as it has these GDP targets, it will need to have a degree of overcapacity. And I think in this environment of weak and low interest rates, which are favoring the exporters, this is going to continue the financial repression story that we've seen for households for decades.

As long as it has these GDP targets, it will need to have a degree of overcapacity. And I think in this environment of weak and low interest rates, which are favoring the exporters, this is going to continue the financial repression story that we've seen for households for decades.

What I would say, though, and sort of counterbalancing towards this is what I would say is a bullish tech story or bullish tech side to China's growth. And I think that this is going to potentially increase some of the rebalancing towards consumption.

What I would say, though, and sort of counterbalancing towards this is what I would say is a bullish tech story or bullish tech side to China's growth. And I think that this is going to potentially increase some of the rebalancing towards consumption.

What I would say, though, and sort of counterbalancing towards this is what I would say is a bullish tech story or bullish tech side to China's growth. And I think that this is going to potentially increase some of the rebalancing towards consumption.

The reason I say that is because not only are we seeing more services, some of this geared towards AI and the usage of AI in healthcare, in elderly care, in retail and manufacturing, but we see these tech companies come up with really inventive ways to create new markets.

The reason I say that is because not only are we seeing more services, some of this geared towards AI and the usage of AI in healthcare, in elderly care, in retail and manufacturing, but we see these tech companies come up with really inventive ways to create new markets.

The reason I say that is because not only are we seeing more services, some of this geared towards AI and the usage of AI in healthcare, in elderly care, in retail and manufacturing, but we see these tech companies come up with really inventive ways to create new markets.

I'm optimistic that Chinese tech will be very, very resilient and it will find more ways to be even more self-sufficient and have supply chain resilience. But it could create more products and services that, again, could boost consumption, reduce the cost of certain services and goods. So I'm bullish on some parts of the tech story and bullish on some parts of the consumption-boosting story.

I'm optimistic that Chinese tech will be very, very resilient and it will find more ways to be even more self-sufficient and have supply chain resilience. But it could create more products and services that, again, could boost consumption, reduce the cost of certain services and goods. So I'm bullish on some parts of the tech story and bullish on some parts of the consumption-boosting story.

I'm optimistic that Chinese tech will be very, very resilient and it will find more ways to be even more self-sufficient and have supply chain resilience. But it could create more products and services that, again, could boost consumption, reduce the cost of certain services and goods. So I'm bullish on some parts of the tech story and bullish on some parts of the consumption-boosting story.

But I see these structural challenges still in play, and that means a net disinflationary environment for the rest of the world because China needs to produce more. And if the U.S. is not going to buy it, then it's going to have to export to other economies, maybe the European market, for instance. So it's two very different pathways for China.

But I see these structural challenges still in play, and that means a net disinflationary environment for the rest of the world because China needs to produce more. And if the U.S. is not going to buy it, then it's going to have to export to other economies, maybe the European market, for instance. So it's two very different pathways for China.

But I see these structural challenges still in play, and that means a net disinflationary environment for the rest of the world because China needs to produce more. And if the U.S. is not going to buy it, then it's going to have to export to other economies, maybe the European market, for instance. So it's two very different pathways for China.

But I come out from this trade war feeling that the Chinese policymakers have more resolve to, again, expedite some of these structural trends towards consumption. And in case of backlash against overcapacity to reroute through these third parties, we saw 20% year-on-year increases to exports to ASEAN.