Alice Han

That's chinadecode.profgmedia.com.

All right, let's get into it.

It has been just more than 30 days since Israel and the US launched their military operations in Iran, thrusting much of the world into deep uncertainty.

China gets about half of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, but it has not offered public support for Tehran nor offered security guarantees or military backing, in part because of the current tenuous moment in China's trade relationship with the U.S.,

Beijing is being highly cautious.

Call it a fraught neutrality or call it playing the long game.

China is clearly trying to project an image of calm economic stability to a global audience looking on to judge its next moves.

James, China, I think, has been quite withdrawn from the criticism of the conflict relative to, say, Venezuela.

We've discussed that previously.

But the fact of the matter is China is still very vulnerable, exposed.

If this war becomes more prolonged and it seems as every day that passes, it's more likely that it is a more prolonged conflict, right?

So what is your assessment as to why China hasn't really been as aggressive or vociferous in its criticism?

It's abstained from the UN resolution on the Tehran conflict.

And it hasn't really, to my knowledge at least, given direct military aid to the Iranians.

Well, I like the way that you framed this, James, as game theory.

You know, to borrow the vernacular of game theory, I think China's dominant strategy, and maybe you and I agree in this respect, is to have the Strait of Hormuz open, but on its own terms, and ideally through diplomatic means, right?

I think the fact that you have a back channel between Hormuz

Washington and Tehran via Pakistan is a key indication that China is probably strongly involved, right?

Remember, because Pakistan is effectively a client state of China, heavily funded and military aided by Beijing.

So I could see China playing a big role in if there is some kind of a peace agreement between