Alice Han

Whenever, you know, the big giants...

the heads of state meet.

There's a lot of analysis that happens before, during and after.

What is, if you were to look at it, what are your top predictions for what comes out of this summit?

Well, I love a big call and I do agree with elements of it, although I think I probably come out with it being somewhat even in terms of the playing field.

My frame working for this summit is the question for both sides, what are your asks and what can you both agree on in terms of concessions?

And on the China side, my sense, having just been there for a month, is that the Chinese care about three main issues and then two somewhat secondary issues.

The three big issues are tariffs.

They probably will want some minor reduction of the current effective tariff rate of a little bit above 30%.

They probably want the Section 301 investigation to go away.

Remember, that was put into place as a response to SCOTUS striking down IEPA.

So there's a tariff issue.

Number two, they will probably, I think, want more clarity on the freeze to export controls.

And although I don't think there will be an announcement of loosening of some of the export restrictions on, say, chips,

I think the Chinese will be pushing for a continued freeze on both ends, you know, on export restrictions for chips in return for continued export restrictions for rare earths, which remember they remain in place according to the current frameworking until November.

And number three, there is a strong push for the so-called board of investment strategy, meaning that the Chinese are probably going to ask

for Chinese factories like your BYDs or CATLs, battery makers, manufacturers, car makers, to set up plants in a JV structure or wholly-owned Chinese structure in the US.

That, I think, has been signaled quite strongly from Beijing in the last few months.

And then the secondary issues I think about are really the geopolitical ones.

Number one is Iran.