Alice Han

And to your point, James, even if the IMF and Beijing...

theoretically understand that China needs to rebalance.

We have a lot of private companies on the ground that we're seeing in China that need to export because all they're seeing is domestic slowdown, domestic headwinds.

So they are finding ways to export to APAC, export even to the US with subsidiaries that they've set up, or even to Europe where things, again, seem to be softening.

So to your point, James, I don't think that any of the IMF's advice or recommendations for the Chinese government will really be adhered to, primarily because this is too big of a ship to really seriously steer in the opposite direction.

And I think that when we get to the NBC, the National People's Congress, the Lianghui in early March,

We'll probably see a government work report and a five-year plan, the 15th five-year plan, focus a lot on China being a manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing superpower.

So, you know, what Trump is doing marginally helps China because, to your point, James, it reduces the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods.

And Trump so far is still in a dovish mode.

He's more interested in his tariff war with the rest of the world.

He's put on a 15% tariff.

a global tariff through Section 122, again, showing that even if IEPA struck down, he's got so many other tools.

So I think that this trade war hasn't stopped.

He's going to continue to use different instruments.

But what is clear is that he wants to have a good photo op-ed moment with Xi Jinping in Beijing, in China in early April.

So he's going to do everything he can to reduce the tensions in that relationship.

Tariffs being one of them, because effectively the 10% fentanyl tariff has been struck down by the Supreme Court ruling.

And then we'll have to see going into the meeting whether or not soybeans are on the table as well.

But to your point, this is coming at a good time for China.

Meanwhile, China is negotiating better deals on the trade front with Canada, with the UK, with Europe.