Alice Han

We're seeing in our contemporary memory, the lowest levels of bilateral trade between the US and China.

I think the US share of total Chinese exports to the world has halved since Trump last came to China in 2017.

So it's interesting to see how, you know, really over the last decade, trade has become reduced.

Although, you know, if you look into the numbers, actually, it's just being rerouted through these third party countries, mainly in Southeast Asia, Mexico and whatnot.

But what has become, I think, more prevalent since 2017, and I'm curious about your thoughts, James, is the dual-use nature of pretty much everything.

You know, autonomous, weapons, AI, even biotech and pharma.

I think increasingly that basket of dual-use technologies has increased from both sides.

And you see that in the export restriction programs that they put into place.

But the backdrop to this summit, I think, is very much going to be somewhat different to 2017, where I don't think it's going to be as much about trade.

I think it's going to be more about some of these dual-use technologies.

They do not get resolved, I think, from this summit alone.

There will be more to come.

And I think Xi will go to the U.S.

at the end of the year.

But my one-liner takeaway is that this is all about vibes.

The Chinese understand this very, very well.

And they are willing to play the positive moon music for Trump coming in because he needs to score a real foreign policy gain.

And he will try to do that in Beijing with nothing really substantive.

Maybe a Chinese promise to increase ag purchases and Boeing purchases coming out of the summit.

But James, how do you think about the differences between 2017 and today?