Alice Han

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China's economy is sending mixed signals.

Exports and high-tech manufacturing are booming according to the latest 2025 data, but lending is at its weakest level since 2018.

Consumer confidence is soft and the property sector remains in deep, deep trouble.

As Beijing leans harder on technology, trade surpluses and even the digital yuan to power growth, the question is whether this imbalance is sustainable or a warning sign ahead of the March National People's Congress meeting.

James, let's go right into it.

The economic data from 2025 as a whole year and the Q4 data have just come out.

I'm excited to get into the weeds with you.

What's your hot take on the data?

I agree with your first principal's view, which is that this is a deeply skewed, imbalanced economy.

The data points that stood out to me, so exports made up a third of Chinese GDP last year.

That's the highest level since 1997.

And growth capital formation, which is a more accurate measure, to my mind, of Chinese investment.

in the economy rather than fixed asset investment contributed just 15%.

And that's the lowest since 1997 too.

10 years ago, those numbers would have been flipped.

You would have seen an economy that was more driven by fixed asset investment rather than exports.

But certainly as we've discussed previously, James, the fact that they've had to crack down on fixed asset investment on the real estate sector, on local government debt, has all contributed to the need to ramp up and juice up