Alice Han

I think these all hinge around these tectonic plates of fertility, which is why this is actually quite an important issue.

I'm in the camp of being very skeptical that this actually works.

you know, putting a 13% tax on condoms.

I think more importantly, you've seen this in the Scandinavian countries.

Aside from immigration, you've got to have strong maternity leave policies.

You've got to make it financially better for women to take some time off and have kids without being penalized for it.

But some of the numbers, James, and maybe you can run us through this, of how much it costs to raise a child in China relative to the rest of the world are pretty shocking.

So there was a think tank in Beijing, the Yuwa Population Research Institute, that calculated that the cost of raising a child until the age of 18 was over $76,000.

And I think that that is about 13, 14 times per capita GDP.

There are some other economists out there that say that could it be double that amount because that research doesn't take into account the indirect cost or the parenthood penalty of having kids, meaning the cost to, say, your salary.

But I think regardless, it shows you the enormity of childcare as an economic burden to households.

And households are having a rational approach to this, which is they're having less kids or they're not having kids at all.

And again, James, I think you paint a great picture of the implications at a demographic level of this position.

And if demography is destiny, I think China may be in a worse position than the U.S., certainly, which continues to benefit from immigration.

But James, when you were there in China, was this something that you sensed or was it a concern that people voiced?

Very interesting.

All right, James, it is prediction time.

What's your prediction for the week?

Well, we didn't mention the China Economic Work Conference, which is an important December meeting.

And that happened last week.