Alice Han

And I've been sort of reading the tea leaf, so to speak.

And my prediction is that the real estate slump will continue in most of 2026.

I'm not sure if there are signs that it's bottoming out quite as yet.

We saw negative 14.7% growth in the latest October data on real estate investment, just for reference.

And when I read the CEWC readout, which talks a lot about stabilizing the real estate market,

It seems to me that Beijing isn't too concerned about trying to bail out the property sector.

In fact, it will just use, I think, more locality-based policies to reduce some of the constraints and restrictions on purchasing, and maybe on the margin offer some financing, reviving the whitelist financing project, for instance, to help the sales of these completed homes.

But I don't sense that Beijing is going to intervene and seriously try to boost the property market, even though the data look pretty dismal.

So that's my hot take is that the real estate investment growth remains a huge drag on fixed asset investment through most of 2026.

Yeah, definitely has implications for commodities and for other sectors that are sensitive to the real estate sector.

All right, that's all for this episode.

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