Alireza Jafrizadeh
speaker
44 appearances
1 recordings
1 series
first heard May 2025
last heard May 2025
Alireza Jafrizadeh’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.
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And then back in 2015, the negotiations that led to 2015, JCPOA, the US was part of a group of others, what they call five plus one, and now it's the US negotiating. But the difference is that, first of all, the regime is in a very weak position. This is not the same negotiating table as before. They have lost much of their clout in the region. Their biggest ally Assad is gone.
Their militia groups, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shia militias in Iraq, and a whole host of others that have been badly shattered. The regime is facing a lot of opposition inside the country by the people, by the organized resistance, by the same movement that actually exposed these nuclear sites, the MEK, that they won't change.
And that's why the regime is in a much weaker position. But what they want to do, they want to keep their nuclear weapons program at any cost. The negotiations give them something. It gives them the opportunity to avoid backlash, to avoid confrontation, to buy time in order to be able to run the clock.
Why that clock is important to snap back all the previous UN Security Council resolutions and the sanctions that come with it, that will expire. So you have a very small window of opportunity for the US to enforce it on the regime and for the regime to escape it.
So what they're doing, they're saying, okay, let's sit down and let's talk and just buying week by week of time and making it the other side to believe that the regime doesn't want to develop nuclear weapons. They're only interested in a peaceful nuclear energy. But the reality is that it's like been there, done that. This is the regime that said exactly the same thing
Actually, the JCPOA itself, as much flaws as it had in it, was all about supposedly the peaceful energy that they could only enrich uranium to 3.6%, 7%, and look what they're doing. They went way beyond their promising. They made a number of promises that they will not replace the centrifuges with the more advanced, more faster ones they did.
They promised not to enrich uranium under the mountains. They did. They promised to comply with the IAEA inspections. They rejected that. So they say three strikes, you're out. I don't know how many strikes we're talking about right now when it comes to the Iranian regime. That's why the rules has to be different.
When the president said that no enrichment, are there no circumstances, that should be the goal. And in order to have no enrichment, we're not talking about percentages, we're talking about shutting down all of those nuclear sites. That has been our position. That is the stated goal of the US administration. Various negotiators have talked about it, including
the president himself, including the Secretary of State, and including Mr. Mitkoff, but the regime is playing games. They just had an interview with somebody who was close to Khamenei, who says, oh, we can have a peaceful thing. We will make a promise of not developing nuclear weapons. I mean, this is the promise the regime made 20 some years ago, and they continue to violate it.
Well, the alternative is that first of all, you definitely want to emphasize and keep your position that there should be no enrichment capability on the part of the Iranian regime and understand that the other side is weaker. This is not 2015, this is not 2003. And third, this regime, because they're so desperate,
The one thing that would really move them, the one thing that would get them more worried is their existential threat, the possibility to be overthrown. They're aware of it. They know the population is not on their side. They know, and I think the whole world would understand that the real ultimate resolution of this issue, which is ending the nuclear threat of Iran,
is ending the rule of the clinics, that's of course the responsibility of the people of Iran and the organized resistance. But that's also a leverage. Unless the mullahs feel that the outside world is not going to just look at the ruling Mullahs is the only partner in Iran. They will look at the people of Iran. They will look at the organized resistance.
They will look at those who actually exposed these nuclear sites for years and decades. Those who are behind the uprisings in Iran, who are acting as engine for change. That's the real partner for the outside world, whether it's the United States or Europe. That's where you really need to invest. You need to open up. You need to explore that opportunity.
You need to emphasize publicly that the people of Iran have the right to confront the revolutionary guards, have the right to overthrow the repressive rulers. That's when you get the Ayatollahs to comply and to act based on that. Otherwise, they will continue dragging this issue. Okay.
Well, one thing I want to say is that they definitely need to stick to what they have said in the beginning. The stated goal is to prevent the Iran regime from obtaining nuclear weapons. And in order to achieve that, the enrichment program must be entirely shut down. It's very possible, it's very doable, only if you stick to it.
And the second point is that who thought just a week before Assad went down just this past December in Syria, he seemed to be very invincible. He didn't have really those levels of uprisings in the preceding four or five years seemed to be quiet. And suddenly the whole thing went down because the balance of power in the region had shifted against the regime and against their proxies.
And that's a new reality in Iran. There have been several rounds of uprisings in Iran. Of course, the regime tried to crush them, but every time they did it, it came back months later or a year later. only stronger, more focused on regime change, lasted longer, and people have totally given up on the ballot box in Iran.
That's an explosive society you have in Iran, and the main foundation for those uprisings were actually the economic situation. And the economy in Iran is just totally in shambles. Things have gotten worse than two years ago when you had those major uprisings continuing. And then you have the organized resistance, organized opposition who want an end to the rule of the mullahs.
And so that's where you want to really, the real ally are those people who have been revolting against the regime. That's where you want to count on. They're not asking for boots on the ground. They're not asking for even appropriation of money. All they're saying is just recognize our right to end the rule of the clerics.
I don't know exactly what's really going on at the negotiating table. When I hear what the mullahs are saying, it's very obvious to me that they're just basically trying to keep the negotiations alive and also drag it because every day that passes, They have expired like one more day in order to get to the October deadline.
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