Amy Jaffe

challenged by this cutoff of oil supply will be China.

We in the United States are very lucky.

We have tremendous amount of oil and gas production right here in the United States.

We have excess refining capacity.

So it doesn't feel like it when you're an average American, but we actually have a giant surplus of gasoline manufacturing capability.

And so we're not going to be

tight for supply.

It's just that our supplies will be more expensive because the global price, which will influence our U.S.

price, is going to be more expensive, is already more expensive.

I think if there was a ceasefire and it looked like a stable solution, then you could get the oil moving quite quickly.

Some of the products that we get through the Strait of Hormuz, whether that's refined products like jet fuel or naphtha, which is used for petrochemicals,

Some of that's going to be a long time to be brought back online because you have refining equipment that was damaged by bombing.

Countries are taking steps to lower the use of oil.

And that's one of the other big weapons in the arsenal of an oil supply disruption is what can I do quickly?

to lower oil use.

And one of the interesting things post-COVID is that we kind of know what happened where oil wasn't used as much.

And one of those things is remote work.

When less people are commuting to their offices by vehicle, we use a lot less oil.

So there's a couple of countries, notably Thailand and Vietnam, that have, in Thailand's case, they've said everyone in the country needs to go back to remote work.

So there are things now that we do that we can lower our oil use that weren't available 10 years ago or 20 years ago.