Andrej Karpathy

Why don't you do it today?

And the reason you don't do it today is because they just don't work.

So, like, they don't have enough intelligence.

They're not multimodal enough.

They can't do computer use and all this kind of stuff.

And they don't do a lot of the things that you've alluded to earlier.

You know, they don't have continual learning.

You can't just tell them something and they'll remember it.

And they're just cognitively lacking and it's just not working.

And I just think that it will take about a decade to work through all of those issues.

Yeah, I guess this is where you get into like a bit of, I guess, my own intuition a little bit.

And also just kind of doing a bit of an extrapolation with respect to my own experience in the field, right?

So I guess I've been in AI for...

almost two decades.

I mean, it's going to be maybe 15 years or so.

Not that long.

You had Richard Sutton here who was around, of course, for much longer.

But I do have about 15 years of experience of people making predictions of seeing how they actually turned out.

And also, I was in the industry for a while and I was in research and I worked in the industry for a while.

So, I guess I kind of have just a general intuition that I have left from that.