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Andrej Karpathy

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
3419 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

If we think of tasks as, you know, not jobs, but tasks, kind of difficult definitions.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

Because the problem is like society will refactor based on the tasks that make up jobs compared to what's based on what's automatable or not.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But today, what jobs are replaceable by AI?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So a good example recently was Jeff Hinton's prediction that radiologists would not be a job anymore.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And this turned out to be very wrong in a bunch of ways, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So radiologists are alive and well and growing, even though computer vision is really, really good at recognizing all the different things that they have to recognize in images.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And it's just messy, complicated things.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

job with a lot of surfaces and dealing with patients and all this kind of stuff in the context of it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So I guess I don't actually know that by that definition, AI has made a huge amount of dent yet.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

But some of the jobs maybe that I would be looking for have some features that I think make it very amenable to automation earlier than later.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

As an example, call center employees often come up, and I think rightly so, because call center employees are

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

have a number of simplifying properties with respect to what's automatable today.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

Their jobs are pretty simple.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

It's a sequence of tasks and every task looks similar.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

Like you take a phone call with a person, it's 10 minutes of interaction or whatever it is, probably a bit longer.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

In my experience, a lot longer.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And you complete some task in some scheme and you change some database entries around or something like that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So you keep repeating something over and over again, and that's your job.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

So basically, you do want to bring in the task horizon, how long it takes to perform a task.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy โ€” AGI is still a decade away

And then you want to also remove context, like you're not dealing with different parts of services of companies or other customers.