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Andrej Karpathy

πŸ‘€ Speaker
3433 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

That, to me, seems most likely outcome of how all of this stuff will go down.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

Yeah, I think that's fair.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

That's a good pushback.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

I think, like, I guess I expect loss of both power.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

So we're really far into a territory of... I don't know what this looks like, but if I was to write sci-fi novels, they would look along the lines of not even a single entity or something like that, that just sort of takes over everything, but actually multiple competing entities that gradually become more and more autonomous, and some of them go rogue, and the others fight them off, and all this kind of stuff.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

And it's like this hot pot of...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

completely autonomous activity that we've delegated to.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

I kind of feel like it would have that flavor.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

I mean, I basically expect there to be, I mean, a lot of these things, I mean, they will be tools to people and the people could, some of the population is like, they're acting on behalf of people or something like that.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

So maybe those people are in control, but maybe it's a loss of control overall for society in the sense of like outcomes we want or something like that, where you have entities acting on behalf of individuals that are still kind of roughly seen as out of control.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

I guess what I mean is...

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

I do, but it's business as usual because we're in an intelligence explosion already and have been for decades.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

And when you look at GDP, it's basically the GDP curve that is an exponential weighted sum over so many aspects of the industry.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

Everything is gradually being automated, has been for hundreds of years.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

Industrial revolution is automation and some of the physical components and the tool building and all this kind of stuff.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

Compilers are early software automation, et cetera.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

So I kind of feel like we've been recursively self-improving and exploding for a long time.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

Maybe another way to see it is,

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

I mean, Earth was a pretty, I mean, if you don't look at the biomechanics and so on, it was a pretty boring place, I think, and looked very similar if you just look from space.

Dwarkesh Podcast
Andrej Karpathy β€” AGI is still a decade away

And Earth is spinning, and then, like, we're in the middle of this, like, firecracker event.