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Andy Darroch

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
187 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

And bear in mind, this is very commonly not borrowing necessarily against completed assets.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

I'm sure in a lot of cases it is, but not infrequently this will be things like mezzanine finance or developer finance.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

I'm sorry to interrupt you, but it's for property development, right?

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

Exactly.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

It's not necessarily, hey, I've got this wonderful toll road.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

Do you want to buy some debt against it?

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

As you say, it's very entwined with property development and it is high risk.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

And one of the things with property is it can fall prey to exogenous shocks, right?

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

So there are potentially...

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

external factors that could impact you know the property market and i'm talking mostly for again developer and commercial property here but i suppose the other consideration is the thing that everyone with the benefit of hindsight is now talking about is that blue hour particularly is an investor that had a lot of tech exposure and the golden rule with you know credit investing is do not have too many eggs in one basket and so you look at the australian

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

you know context and you say well inherently it's just got a lot in property and you know perhaps that's a good thing right now but as you know as a seasoned credit manager i would think that they might look at that and say we'd rather a more diverse book of borrowings and again this will depend on what fund you're in what manager you're in and all manner of things but generally speaking we are in australia much more exposed to property in the private credit space

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

Okay.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

Well, it's hard to say.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

I think one of the, probably the greatest credit investor of all time, Howard Marks of Oak Tree did a really illuminating memo on this recently.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

And his take was, look, it's probably not as bad as people think.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

Again, it pays to remember it's a big space.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

This is trillions of dollars.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

There's

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

insurance companies, sovereign wealth companies, all the rest.

The Money Puzzle
Private credit - How bad is this going to get?

So I don't think it will erupt.