Annie Duke

Well, thank you for having me, Mike.

Look, if we were really terrible at making decisions, our species wouldn't exist.

The issue that we have is that we have all these ways that we make decisions that work most of the time.

They're pretty good.

The problem is that there's a whole set of circumstances under which they don't work, which would be true of kind of any rule of thumb.

So there are certain heuristics that we use in order to make decisions.

There are biases that we have in the decisions that we make that cause us to make poor decisions under certain and predictable circumstances.

Yeah, so it's an interesting trade-off.

And B, I think it depends a little bit about what arena we're talking about.

I think in general, for things like marriage, which is supposed to be a lifelong commitment, getting married and then immediately starting to second-guess that would be bad for your happiness.

I think that's absolutely true.

So you definitely don't want to second-guess things too much.

I think that in general, if you go to college and you're constantly second-guessing

Your choice of college, for example, you're going to be less happy.

If you take a job and you're constantly second guessing the job that you take, you're going to be less happy.

That being said, there's a flip side to that, which is that we don't want the second guessing to go to zero.

And the reason that we don't want that to go to zero is that when we choose to do something, so let's say we choose to take a job.

Remember, I said every decision is a forecast.

We're choosing to take the job under conditions where we don't have a lot of information.

We've done some interviews.