Annie Duke

So I basically used the dollar bill as a random number generator because I felt like if the other person was better at rock, paper, scissors than me, and when I'm playing against people, I'm noticing some patterns that I could take advantage of if they weren't as good.

Then if I felt like the person was better than me, it was better for me to use a random number generator because then they can't do what I was doing to other people.

Well, I think that, yeah, I mean, I think that the type of skills that I teach in my classes and my books and my research, they really kind of apply across the board.

So, for example, you heard me say, so in rock, paper, scissors, there's three things they can do.

There's, you know, they can throw rock, paper, scissors.

If someone's using a random number generator, each of those is 33 and a third.

But if they have a pattern, you're trying to figure out what the probability of those different

of those different throws might be for that player, sometimes given what they just threw, for example, sometimes given like their own tendencies that you might notice, and then you're playing accordingly.

And that's like that idea of like, what are the different outcomes that are available?

What's the probability of those things occurring?

It's just like a super core decision skill.

It's one of the most important ones that you can have is kind of approaching the world that way.

So the way they did it was everybody got paired and you were all in a line.

So I couldn't scout anybody.

Because I was playing at the same time as they were.

But theoretically, if the way they were running the tournament was different, I could have

But honestly, rock, paper, scissors is pretty random.

Your edge is going to be relatively small.

So I also got very lucky, which is another core decision skill, is to recognize the influence of luck in the things that occur.

Okay, I'm going to try to sway you.