Annie Duke

So I think that I can't.

The short answer is I can't.

So let's start with how we can do that.

What you actually described is actually a perfect description of what I think about and what I write about in decision making is the intersection of luck and skill.

So when we think about why anything occurs, it's going to occur because of two things only.

Thing number one, what you're pointing out, is the quality of the decision that you make, right?

So you could make a poor decision.

You could make a good decision.

I would argue playing the lottery is, on average, a poor decision, depending on why you're doing it.

But if you're trying to make money, it would be a poor decision.

But it depends on what your goals are.

So you have the quality of the decision that you make, which, as you just very...

succinctly put, like you put it very well, determines what the outcomes are that are available to you.

So if I never go and play the lottery, winning the lottery isn't an available outcome.

If I do go to the store and I purchase the ticket and I fill it out properly and let's hope that I don't lose it,

Those are all decisions that are being made.

And that then creates a future where one of the outcomes that could occur is winning the lottery.

So if I don't do that, it can't happen.

So yeah.

So let me get to the second piece.