Annie Duke

So you have the quality of your decisions, right?

That determines the outcomes that are available to you.

So any decision that you make is going to have a set of outcomes that are available to you, different things that could happen.

You could, if you're not paying attention, for example, you could get in an accident, but you could also not get in an accident.

Both of those things are true.

You could get in an accident that's varying degrees of bad.

Someone could just nick your car.

Someone could T-bone you.

You could end up with whiplash.

You could end up in the hospital.

You could end up dead.

There's a whole variety of things that are associated with your not paying attention in the car.

Each of those things is going to occur some of the time, but not all of the time.

What outcome you actually observe is determined by luck.

So let me sort of take it back, right?

If I flip a coin, when the coin leaves my hand, there are two outcomes that could occur, heads or tails.

I have flipped the coin, right?

So the fact that I flipped a two-sided fair coin has sort of set those two outcomes in place, heads or tails.

We happen to know that if it's a fair coin, heads is going to land 50% of the time, tails is going to land 50% of the time.

Which thing lands is determined by luck.