Annie Duke

So when you leave having won the lottery and you're so excited and you're distracted, there's a whole bunch of different things that could occur, right?

In the same way, if you run a red light, there's a bunch of things that could occur.

The most common thing that happens when you run a red light is nothing.

right?

Mostly, you're fine, right?

But we know that if you run a red light as opposed to a green light, that you're increasing the chances that something very bad happens to you.

But it's not going to occur 100% of the time.

It's going to occur some percent of the time.

Let's say 15% of the time, something bad's going to happen to you.

When that 15% happens, you don't control.

But what you did do was by running a red light, you made there be a 15% chance something bad happens, where if you go through a green light, it's less than 1% of the time something bad is going to happen to you.

So I think that the quibble that we're having is about this idea of pure luck.

Is there anything that is determined by pure luck?

There are a few things that are determined by pure luck, but not a ton that are going to occur in your life.

Mostly it's you make decisions.

There are different futures that could occur because of the decisions that you've made and which future you actually observe is determined by luck.

So I think that that's – so luck is used in different ways, right?

And so I actually agree with you about that.

If we're using luck as something good or bad, right?

So we can think about what I'm talking about is luck is a neutral thing, right?