Annie Duke

Like –

20% of the time I'm going to get, you know, I'm going to be distracted and nothing bad is going to happen to me.

15% of the time, maybe someone nicks me, like just nicks my car, you know, uh,

10% of the time, I hit the person in front of me and get whiplash.

We can think about what those are.

And luck is determining which of those things you see.

That's neither good nor bad.

That's just a force that acts upon us.

What you're talking about is, can we make a judgment when we actually observe the outcome about whether it's a good outcome or a bad outcome?

That's a wholly different, I mean, sorry, let me say that again.

Can we make a judgment at the time that the thing occurs about whether it's good luck or bad luck, right?

Can we do that?

And I think you're right.

The answer is, I think we're pretty bad judges of that.

We have the instinct to do that.

As soon as something happens, we're like, ah, that was such good luck or, oh, that was such bad luck.

But I think that we don't actually know until long after the fact.

Simple example, right?

We know about people who win the lottery all the time.

They're like dreaming of this.