Annie Duke

I know a lot of people, and I'm sure you do, where they're like obsessing over a menu at a restaurant and they're trying to decide what to order.

Remember, like they haven't been at the restaurant before.

Last time I checked, they're non-omniscient and they don't have a dime machine.

So they can't travel forward in time and see what that dish is like.

before they order it.

So this is a good example where you're just trying to think like, what are the things I like and increase the probability that you have a yummy meal, right?

So what happens though, when you order the chicken and it's dry and it's not very good and maybe you don't even finish it, right?

What's the first thing that everybody thinks?

Ah, I should have ordered something else.

I made a mistake.

That's a very good example of what we call resulting, right?

Well, you should have ordered something else.

Like you've never been in that restaurant.

You haven't tasted that food before and you don't have a time machine.

So you were making your best guess.

It's not a mistake that you ordered the chicken.

That was your best decision given the information that you had at the time, right?

It's kind of hard for people to wrap their heads around it.

Okay, like so completely.

All right, so this is a super fun topic.