Anthony Pompliano

where GDP is negative in real GDP terms over two quarters, I do not think we will see any kind of job losses that are meaningful.

We haven't seen anything in jobless claims yet.

But the problem is we also have had no job creation.

So the reason I'm reluctant to say that it won't be something that gets defined by the NBER, if oil prices stay where they are around the globe,

the probability of the global economy going into recession goes higher.

And the US by definition does.

If we can't order more semiconductors and we have to slow down data centers, then we're in trouble.

We ain't got no housing market.

We ain't got no commercial real estate market.

Like how AI has been the dominant theme.

So when people worry about a CapEx cut,

Maybe the CapEx cut comes in.

We actually can't do anything right now because we can't get the equipment that we need to build the stuff and the bottlenecks get worse.

That is what the 1970s were about.

They were about bottlenecks.

And if people want to go back and look at the 1970s, so far year to date, the performance of the S&P 500 by sectors where energy, materials, utilities, consumer staples, real estate, those are the best performing sectors, the ones that are the worst, technology, financials.

That was basically the decade of the 1970s.

And I'll just say one more thing on this because I've talked about Bitcoin being the big beneficiary.

I believe over the course of the next five to ten years, GDP is going to go up faster than the S&P 500.

What that means, I don't know.