Why Bitcoin Could Explode As Global Markets Crack | Jordi Visser
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What are the implications of the Iran conflict on the oil market?
So I'm going to keep pounding the table that the best thing for Bitcoin is a continuing credit problem, which I don't think can be resolved on itself. And at the same point, having a commodity bear market, a bull market, which is based on scarcity, and then a shorting of abundance, which is based on these growth assets. If all of that plays in.
What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. We're going to talk about what's going on with Iran, what's going on with oil prices, inflation, deflation in the tech industry, AI. Are people smuggling GPUs into China? What exactly is going on in terms of your portfolio, how you should prepare?
What is the commodity bull market thesis presented?
Are software companies going to be more or less valuable in the future? Why is Jordy getting bullish on Bitcoin and thinks that it could be the escape hatch for a lot of things going on in the world? All that and much more in this conversation with Jordy Visser.
How do inflation risks relate to recession probabilities?
All right, Jordy, other than it being St. Patrick's week and us wearing green unplanned, but still great look for both of us. Let's start with Iran, you know, very related to St. Patrick's Day.
What factors could drive oil prices higher?
Not really. There was a ton of, I think, differences in people's opinion this week. First week, okay, cool, this is going to be quick.
How does Bitcoin compare to gold in performance?
Second week, all right, we're making progress. Third week, wait a minute here. Now we got LNG facilities getting blown up.
Why is Bitcoin considered a global 'escape hatch' asset?
We've got oil production significantly slowing. We've got the straight still closed. Lots of problems. How are institutional investors thinking about underwriting the situation and what the ramifications could be in financial markets?
I'm shocked. Here's why I'm shocked. I don't really care about... the market reaction at this point because we live in a society of instant gratification.
What is the debate between inflation and AI-driven deflation?
So the fact that people probably bought a lot of hedges, we've got expiration today, I'm not gonna talk about the market. The reason I'm confused is that I don't think people are looking at the facts. So forget the amount of drones, forget people forecasting when this is gonna end, when the straight will be open.
How is AI disrupting the labor market and software valuations?
Nobody knows that. And as far as I'm concerned, I care about the facts. Gas at the pump is now 392 as we sit here this morning. It started this journey at 280. So this is $1.10 on 280. That's a fact. Diesel prices are up $1.50. If you go look at what happened at the time that CPI went up to nine plus percent, this is a faster move than what happened back then for those. Oil prices, you put on the evening news, they tell you oil's around $100. That's not true. The facts are that there's a lot of oil prices. Oil prices that go to Asia hit close to 170 this week in terms of Oman and Dubai, 130, 170. Brent is way above where WTI is. So I think people are paralyzed. I think institutional investors are paralyzed.
I think the sell side is paralyzed. And I think there's a very important reason for it that gets into... my handicapping days at the racetrack. Why does a horse go off as the favorite? Well, it goes off the favorite because of the most recent results that happen. So when the Kentucky Derby comes, the guarantee will be the horse that is the favorite pretty much won its last race leading into it. Probably won its last two or three races leading into it. Probably has the fastest speed. There's a momentum thing of this is the highest probability. Well, last year we had the tariff fears at this point. And I posted something today because we are three weeks post the beginning of this disruption in Iran. And there is no sign based on the facts, meaning the price is going higher.
There was a major attack on Ras Al Fahan yesterday in Qatar. It's responsible for over 35% of helium. Helium is a major component of semiconductors. Semiconductors are the most owned part. Most of my portfolio is in semiconductors. So if all of a sudden you get a change in kind of earnings estimates, you could have a problem. And this is where I want to just leave people with this. Last year when the tariffs came out, you and I said everyone was panicking. I think we have the complete opposite.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the implications of the Iran conflict on the oil market?
0:00–0:34
2
What is the commodity bull market thesis presented?
0:34–0:44
3
How do inflation risks relate to recession probabilities?
0:44–0:54
4
What factors could drive oil prices higher?
0:54–1:02
5
How does Bitcoin compare to gold in performance?
1:02–1:08
6
Why is Bitcoin considered a global 'escape hatch' asset?
1:08–1:35
7
What is the debate between inflation and AI-driven deflation?
1:35–1:59
8
How is AI disrupting the labor market and software valuations?
1:59–59:37
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from The Pomp Podcast
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