Anthony Pompliano

Obviously, that's got a lot of people shook.

Now, if you've been around, you know that Bitcoin is likely to be very volatile.

We have seen things like a 30% drawdown four, five, six times in bull markets.

And so some people are saying, wait, we're actually not in a bear market.

We simply are just seeing normal drawdowns as we continue to go higher.

$150,000, $200,000, $250,000.

I don't agree with those people.

I think that Bitcoin is in a bear market, but it might be a different type of bear market than you're used to.

So let me explain what are some of the things that I think are happening here.

The first is that there's an entire cohort of people that subscribe to the four-year cycle.

This idea that the halving drives the price up, then there is some sort of correction, we then have these 80% drawdowns, and then we kind of repeat the process over and over again.

It's happened multiple times in the past.

These individuals continue to subscribe to this idea.

Now, the reason why I think that the four-year cycle is interesting is because I do believe that the halving has an impact on price.

If you have a supply shock to an asset and demand stays constant, then you are likely to see higher prices.

What I think is a little bit different though, is that the four-year cycle can remain, yet we can still have different severities in terms of the appreciation and the decrease in price.

That's just volatility disappearing.

And we know that Bitcoin used to be an 80-vol asset, but now it's only a 40-vol asset.

And so if you've cut volatility in half, you should expect less on the upside and less on the downside.

Now, another reason why I think that Bitcoin is likely to be in a bear market right now, other than just the price is down a lot and the four year cycle folks are pretty well timed in calling the top last October, is that we also understand that Bitcoin is becoming financialized.