Anthony Pompliano

You're going to see that chart.

So it made sense.

It's a different world now.

We're a digital economy.

We have 20% of consumption in this country is healthcare, which does not change and has no cyclicality.

And for everyone to realize, a lot of that is funded by the government.

So when you've heard the term universal basic income, just remember, we have $5 trillion a year that is basically transfer payments to people.

That includes Medicare, Medicaid.

It means that the expenditures for healthcare, because we have a sick country,

They're spending that much money, that's GDP.

That's 20% of consumption now of expenditures.

Wealthy people are not gonna change their spending habits dramatically.

Yes, they'll pull back on some things, but to actually see the job losses, you actually need to see

consumption drop off a cliff when you add in the one plus trillion dollars that are happening in capex from ai well that's three and a half percent of gdp you add in the consumption which maybe it'll fall it's been growing at four maybe it grows at two you're still dealing with kind of five percent type numbers that are happening there's going to be negatives in housing there'll be negatives in commercial real estate there'll be negatives and other things

And that part less, little less consumption, little issues on commercial real estate.

But more importantly, the liquidity trap that's happening in private credit will have an impact.

So credit is not going to get better.

The best case scenario for credit for me, the best case is that we go through a 2000 to 2005 situation.

where spreads gradually widen out.

It's not some kind of systemic issue.