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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
I want to be invested in something that can compound at 50% a year, and I think Bitcoin will do it.
Chapter 2: Has the market officially entered a new regime?
So all-time highs for Bitcoin this year, mainly because inflation is here, liquidity is needed, and I don't see a regime shift going back the other direction.
I actually think we officially left the glory days of QE and inflation, and we're in a world where the government can't print money, debt's high, and the rotation of the assets is going to start chasing the one that doesn't have a store in it.
Chapter 3: What are the causes of rising inflation and global shortages?
What's going on, guys? Today, we've got a great conversation with Jordy Visser. In this conversation, we are going to talk about why the market has finally been beaten to submission, what's going to happen with inflation, why he thinks it's going much higher, what that means for the stock returns in your portfolio, and you better get very ready for that conversation.
We're going to talk about Bitcoin, what's going on with the Iran war, and how Jordy is seeing asset rotation happening in people's portfolio, what returns are going to look like over the next decade or so, and frankly, what should you be doing in your portfolio? Jordy's here to break it all down for us this week. Here's my latest conversation with Jordy Visser.
All right, Jordy, market submission. You think that the market has now been put into submission.
Chapter 4: Where is smart money moving in today's market?
They're waving the white flag and saying, okay, no mas. What does that mean?
For the last three weeks, I think there was hope that this was going to be a repeat of last year.
Meaning tariffs got levied and there was a mini panic, stock sold off, Trump and the administration stepped in with a bunch of words, and eventually the market recovered and zoomed higher.
So let's use something people are all very familiar with.
Chapter 5: Could inflation spike back above expectations?
Let's assume you get the stomach bug. You throw up all night. But then the next day it's over. Well, that was liberation day. That was the tariffs.
Chapter 6: Why do stocks struggle in high inflation environments?
This too shall pass. It was just gone. And then you move on. Then there's the other one, which is just a cold.
Chapter 7: Will markets recover or stay flat this year?
that you can't get rid of. And three weeks later, it's still there.
Chapter 8: Why could Bitcoin lead the next market cycle?
Submission is coming to the reality that you don't know when this is going to end, but you know something has changed. And for me, I live in a world, and the market does too, it doesn't get recognized this way. And for people that are watching that are just at home investors, when you hear the word regime shift, that is a structural change in a complex system. The market is a complex system.
It involves credit. It involves interest rates. It involves inflation. It involves economic growth, stagflation, productivity, whatever you want. I think for the first time, institutions in this last week have finally come to the conclusion, and maybe it's because I've been negative now for a period of time and just saying, I think this is going to be a very challenging year.
And in particular, I think It's going to be a very difficult year for covariance matrix, the relationships that have existed for a long time between bonds and stocks, bonds and inflation, inflation and oil and all these different things. Well, we're at that point now where the damage is going on.
And at some point, and I wrote a paper on this for 22V, that when in the first Rocky, he's the underdog, but then he knocks out Apollo Creed in the first round. He didn't win the fight. but that said that it was going to be a long fight. And I think that's what submission is. I think this was the week that people realize that this isn't going away like it did last year in two parts. One is again,
market's not throwing up it's just kind of going through this deleveraging phase where everyone's raising cash but they're getting rid of their market neutral positions and they're gradually taking things down and two this isn't going away quickly in terms of oil prices this will be the fourth week in a row where we're closing above ninety dollars and everyone's done with taco everyone's had enough of they know the drill
Friday, I threatened to do X. Monday comes before the open. You know what? We're going to extend it for five days. We're going to extend it for two weeks. I think people now are focused on the probabilities of boots on the ground and the probabilities of when is the straight going to open. And none of those at this point are looking like good outcomes.
Based on prediction markets, boots on the ground, 70% odds by the end of April, give or take. Yep. The straight being open, 30% odds by the end of April. What do those two numbers tell you?
Well, the straight is the realization from people that they've now done their homework and they realize that even if magically it was open, it's still going to take a long time to get the back to where it was, where it considered to be truly open. It just means that the shortages that we're starting to see around the world are They're going to be here. And these are real shortages.
This is COVID like problems. And I think this is the scarier thing to me is most people in the US because they don't feel it and they don't see it. I mean, they're out of diesel and gas in places like Australia and places like New Zealand. Now, not completely. But there's websites that show how many days left of inventory they have.
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