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Anthony Scilipoti

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
See mentions of this person in podcasts
1019 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

And the other ones have been relatively fast, even in the financial crisis.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

That one actually, the peak was in 07.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

In September 07, that was the peak, and the bottom was March 09.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

That's a lot of pain.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

That's 18 months of pain.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

If you look at what I think could make this one be a longer one, if something were to occur, is it comes from earnings slowing down.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

And earnings growth slowing down, that would be something that would take longer to repair, especially when a lot of the earnings are interconnected, as I talked about, because the companies are dealing with each other.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

You know, we've seen there's meaningful changes that are going on here, right?

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

Like Lululemon is trading at a low, much lower price today than it was last year.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

Let's talk about stock buybacks.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

It's the same as stock options, in a sense, and the disparity between reality, economic reality, and what's going on in the accounting.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

So when you buy back stock, the company is making a investment in a security, which it partially has control over what it does,

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

but it doesn't have full control over what happens to that investment value.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

Whereas if it takes its cash and buys an operating asset that expands its current production, and if it's already generating a meaningful return, then that return should continue and expand.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

So to me, it's a point that says, I have no other investments in my business

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

that would generate a return higher than my cost of capital.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

And so I'm going out and buying my stock.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

And I think that is very risky.

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

How should investors look at that or account for that?

The Knowledge Project
Anthony Scilipoti: The Bubble No One is Talking About

I'm not so concerned about the accounting for stock buybacks.