Arthur Hayes

speaker

1,864 appearances 4 recordings 3 series first heard Jan 2026 last heard 22 Jun

Arthur Hayes’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 2.

Appearances

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Bankless · "The Fed Can't Print Moore's Law" - How the AI Crash Sends Bitcoin to $1M | Arthur Hayes · 22 Jun 2026 podcast

So when I put my hat on as a trader, I'm like, okay, I got to think about the exit from this thing.

I fundamentally believe that humans are always over optimistic at the beginning of any technological build out.

I believe that this could be bigger than the railroads in terms of percentage built.

okay, what happened with the railroad buildup, right?

You had two financial crises in sort of the mid to late 19th century, 1873 and 1893, basically predicated on credit driven to railroads and sort of an over indexing about the return that these things could generate.

So, you know, I think that we could be, this could be the first little test, maybe this summer, we'll see.

And then, you know, you rally off of that and we're still believing the hype in terms of what AI can deliver.

And again,

I think, you know, you read Michael Burry and a lot of these guys about what's wrong with this situation.

It's all these circular revenue deals.

It's that Google invests in a lab or NVIDIA invests in the lab.

The lab takes an investment and buys the chips.

Google is underwriting the credit of the data center that is going to provide them the compute, right?

So it's all just circular accounting.

The depreciation is pushed off in the future, right?

You're taking a chip that depreciates every two years, pretty much.

which we've seen over time, but you're giving it a six-year life or five or six-year life, that doesn't make any sense to amortize a loan based on that.

You're saying that this CapEx will continue indefinitely even though you have Chinese competitors with models that are good enough charging 1% of the price.

And so I think a lot of investors have sort of bought into the idea

the America of, you know, is it the baddest, biggest badass country, best tech, da-da-da-da-da.

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