Arthur Hayes

It's all officially just high inflation.

And just the act of the Federal Reserve in December saying, hey, we're going to start a tightening program in three months' time was the thing that popped all the bubbles.

Crypto, stocks.

housing, whatever, right?

And so that's when we got the bond market.

Worst performing bond market since 1812 in the United States from 2022 to 2025, three or five, three-year rolling average, right?

So it doesn't take much when you're a highly levered economy.

And the levers are even more insane because...

People are going to print that much more money because they believe that that's the way to win elections.

And so when somebody stands up and says, hey, maybe we should try something different, just the threat of it actually happening, just factoring in that probability, even if it might never happen, is what takes investors to say, guess what?

I'm going to exit stage left and maybe I'm just going to sit in cash for now.

I think we're talking 1929 to 2008.

Because the AI CapEx...

build-out is as big as, or maybe I should say 1907, the railroads.

So 1907, 1903, whenever the crash due to the robber barons and the railroad trust in the United States.

The build-out of AI capex is as big or bigger than the build-out of the railroad infrastructure in the 19th century, which was one of the largest, if you look at percent of GDP, capex build-outs in modern human history.

That is what we're doing right now with AI hyperscalers, whether that's in the United States

or in China.

And guess what?

Railroad business is a shitty fucking business to be in as a long-term investor.