Arthur Hayes

speaker

1,864 appearances 4 recordings 3 series first heard Jan 2026 last heard 22 Jun

Arthur Hayes’s voice in public audio — every appearance, attributed to the second.

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recordings per month · last 12 months

Recordings per month over the last 12 months — 4 in all, peaking in Jan 2026 with 2.

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Bankless · "The Fed Can't Print Moore's Law" - How the AI Crash Sends Bitcoin to $1M | Arthur Hayes · 22 Jun 2026 podcast

Right.

And I, but yeah, okay, fine.

The Birkin bag, I'm going to go pay Hermes a bunch of fucking money.

But apart from that, there is no brand value.

So stop talking about like US AI if you're going to say it's 100x more expensive than the Chinese version and does the same stuff.

I think the biggest teller is going to be

this depreciation schedule, right?

So a lot of these financing deals, like we go like, you got to care about the debt because usually it's the debt and the credit that's going to force the, you know, mark fiction to reality.

Okay.

Right?

And close that gap.

And right now you have people underwriting, amortizing GPU deals with a five to six year period when

things are getting better in a two to three year time frame.

So that is mathematically going to start really biting us in, you know, late 2027, 2028 timeframe.

If you think about the pace of which CapEx and loans were issued, 2025 to 2026 were the banner year.

So add two to three years onto that and you really get into this 2028 timeframe, which is the critical period where either demand has so ramped up so high and

that, you know, that doesn't matter or it disappoints.

And just the math of if I amortize an asset at six years, but it has a useful life of two, then all of a sudden, all those H100s and Blackwells that you underwrote are essentially worthless.

And it's not as if

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