Arthur Hayes
๐ค SpeakerAppearances Over Time
Podcast Appearances
Well, guess what?
Go back and become a Chinese investor.
And look at the average return over the last 20 years.
Who did really, really well?
Yes, China built all this amazing infrastructure that helped the average person upgrade their standard of living.
But as an investor on a long-term basis, you made no money in China.
You invested on the side of the government.
You provided your capital.
China's government said, great, thank you for that capital.
I'm going to build airports, roads, apartments, whatever.
On a macro basis, you made no money as an equity investor in China.
Now, they're great for society, bad for investors.
We're going to repeat the same thing with AI in the United States, especially.
AI is great for society, hopefully, bad for individual investors who hold these investments too long.
Because yes, it feels great investing with the government right now, but maybe by 2028, not so great when Nvidia was up 10x, but now you're down 90% because you can get out in time.
So I think that's the lesson.
And as you said, right?
These are great investments for the collective, right?
But it's bad for the shareholder.
Right now, Trump and whoever else comes after him are going to be like, yes, we're going to support the shareholder.