Arthur Hayes

This is not a new phenomenon where the president and the chairman of the Fed are butting heads.

This is not new.

And always the Fed chairman, whoever that is, caves, or the Fed as a political body.

There's a great essay written by Arthur Burns in 1979, The Anguish of Central Banking, where he essentially says that because the politicians want to provide this free money to do stuff for the people, because the people have elected them to do this, we as a Fed, whether we like it or not, are there to facilitate that.

And the thing that will let go is the value of the currency and sort of responsibility of what is the value of the dollar.

And we will always do that.

It's essentially the message that he said.

This is the 1979.

So people need to do a real little bit of history in terms of...

understanding that Trump, Biden, Clinton, Obama, Bush, Reagan, they all got the monetary policy that they wanted in the end.

And so Trump will get it.

I wrote an essay called 4-7, and I talked about the bureaucratic machinations on how Fed votes and how you get control of this board versus that board.

Maybe he does something like that.

Maybe everyone in the Fed is convicted of mortgage fraud and you replace it all.

I don't know.

It doesn't really matter.

There's never been a president who's never gotten the monetary policy that they desire.

Trump will get his monetary policy.

How long it takes?

I think sometime in the second half of 2026, he'll get the monetary policy that he wants, however he does it.