Arthur Hayes

$20 trillion NVIDIA.

So you have four extra money if you put your money in now.

But then NVIDIA goes from a $20 trillion company to, let's call it, let's go back down to like five, right?

So it goes down, what is that, 80%?

or whatever the math is that's shaky on that right now.

And then let's say that there's a period of lull, and then NVIDIA goes back from 5 to 10, right?

So I invested at 5.

It went to 20.

It went back down to 5 or even lower.

And I've basically done nothing over the last two years.

And NVIDIA's still a great company.

Or I waited, I waited for the first real shakeout, and then I went back into the really good companies that are still around, and I bought their stock after the crash.

Even if they don't get back to the market cap that they were when I first invested, I still make more money than I would have in the first scenario on a risk-adjusted basis, or just probabilistically.

right?

So you always want to invest from, you know, from two to 10 gets you a five X return, but from like 10 to 20 is only two X return, but I'm taking more risk because I already intrinsically believe that it's overvalued, but I feel like I have no other choice.

I have to invest in AI.

Well, just wait, you can make more money in a shorter period of time.

Once things have actually crashed out on the rebound, then you can investing in something when you intrinsically believe you're buying at the top, right?

And so that's how I feel about AI.

And you can look at sort of the internet stocks that survived the crash, like Amazon, right?