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Arthur Kroeber

👤 Person
1260 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Let's try and figure out what is the next –

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

stage of technological development that people really aren't working on yet.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Let's work on that and then maybe we can get in on the ground floor.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And so what they came up with in large measure was a renewable energy, specifically electric vehicles.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They started having a pretty comprehensive set of subsidies and other kinds of industrial support for companies like BYD to produce electric vehicles.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

BYD is basically a private company.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

This worked okay for 10 or 12 years.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And BYD got pretty good.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And particularly what they started to figure out was the supply chain.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So they got very good at making the batteries work.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

But still, when you got to 2018, 2019, BYD was still not that exciting a company.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Most people in China really didn't want to buy electric vehicles.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They seemed really inconvenient.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

The sexy cars were like the big SUVs that the joint ventures were putting out and so forth.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And then in 2018, the Chinese government made the decision that they would allow Tesla to come in and build a wholly owned gigafactory in Shanghai.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They had never approved a wholly owned automotive company before.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They started cranking out cars in 2019, which became immensely popular.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And it seems like one of the things that happened was that the Chinese companies by 2019 had gotten pretty good at the underlying technology of electric cars, specifically the batteries and then the software systems that govern the cars.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

But they were terrible at consumer design.