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Arthur Kroeber

👤 Person
1260 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They had not figured out how to make these cars.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And Tesla did have appealing products that people wanted to buy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They were big status symbols.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So BYD and its competitors said, okay, this is the part we have to figure out.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

How do we –

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

How do we achieve this?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And basically, they recognized that they had to up their design game.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They, among other things, went to Germany and –

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

loaded up on a lot of German car designers that were able to transform their kind of technology base into much more appealing packages.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And then by 2022 or so, they were able to compete with Tesla both on price and on quality.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So I think what that shows you is that, number one, the Chinese government made a pretty good bet

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

on this kind of leapfrogging idea that there are technologies of the future, we need to get in early, subsidize the heck out of them.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Some of the estimates that have been made about the level of subsidies given to the EV industry and related supply chains, it's two or $300 billion, huge, huge amounts of money that did not generate that much of a return, financial return for a really long time, but they stuck at it.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And then,

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

The thing that finally flipped the switch was this catalytic foreign investment that showed the Chinese companies what they needed to do to actually compete in the consumer market.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And then they got very good at that very quickly.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

You know, I think the thing is, it's like the old slogan about advertising, half of it works, but you don't know which half.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Yeah, did China need to spend that much in subsidies?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Probably not, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

But had they spent less, would they have had the same effect?