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Arthur Kroeber

👤 Speaker
1260 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

That's right.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And I think, you know, just, you know, so this is what happens if you say...

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

technological development, particularly in hardware, will solve all of our problems.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

It will generate all this growth, and so therefore we don't need this service sector, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So we have a real-life experiment, and what happens if you do that?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And what happens if you do that is you get a lot of progress in the technological sectors, and you get basically a persistent shortage of aggregate demand, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

which means that even the people who are making all this great technology stuff don't have any pricing powers.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They have to keep lowering their prices.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So you get deflation.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

When you get deflation and less employment growth, people say at the household level, oh, people aren't hiring.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So I guess I need to save more and spend less because my income is not going to go up.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And you create the risk of

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

of this deflationary spiral, which they're sort of on the edge of right now.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And so I think this is something, again, this gets back to the sort of like the techno-optimist view of things, is that if you

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

If you have this very narrow view of the economy as purely the expression of the emanation from this technological core, you're missing a lot of stuff.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And you will basically take yourself into a blind alley if you think that that is going to solve all your problems.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And the Chinese government in the last few months I think has begun to recognize this.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

and say, oh, actually, we need to have some kind of a demand strategy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

This is very evident in their top-level statements.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And the problem is they've been working for 45 years to build this magnificent machine of investment and industry and manufacturing, and they're very, very good at it.