Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
That's right.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And I think, you know, just, you know, so this is what happens if you say...
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
technological development, particularly in hardware, will solve all of our problems.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
It will generate all this growth, and so therefore we don't need this service sector, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So we have a real-life experiment, and what happens if you do that?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And what happens if you do that is you get a lot of progress in the technological sectors, and you get basically a persistent shortage of aggregate demand, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
which means that even the people who are making all this great technology stuff don't have any pricing powers.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
They have to keep lowering their prices.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So you get deflation.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
When you get deflation and less employment growth, people say at the household level, oh, people aren't hiring.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So I guess I need to save more and spend less because my income is not going to go up.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And you create the risk of
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
of this deflationary spiral, which they're sort of on the edge of right now.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And so I think this is something, again, this gets back to the sort of like the techno-optimist view of things, is that if you
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
If you have this very narrow view of the economy as purely the expression of the emanation from this technological core, you're missing a lot of stuff.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And you will basically take yourself into a blind alley if you think that that is going to solve all your problems.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And the Chinese government in the last few months I think has begun to recognize this.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
and say, oh, actually, we need to have some kind of a demand strategy.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
This is very evident in their top-level statements.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And the problem is they've been working for 45 years to build this magnificent machine of investment and industry and manufacturing, and they're very, very good at it.