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Arthur Kroeber

👤 Speaker
1260 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And they have basically devoted no time in the last 45 years to figuring out how to create a demand machine.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Mm-hmm.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So they're just at the very early stages of figuring out that part of the problem.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Right.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Yeah, I mean, I think you can scale that analogy up to China, just its total economy.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

I mean, a lot of the stuff that I've been talking about, about how they got here, I mean, the thing you want to be careful about is this is not the result of some carefully crafted master plan that they knew all along.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

It was a lot of groping and a lot of random stuff.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They did one thing for one reason and another thing for another reason.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And then through this kind of random process –

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

It all sort of coalesced in the end, but that was not, you know, the amount of intelligent design behind that was, I think, actually quite low.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

They got a few sort of big directional things, I think, correct.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And they stuck with them.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

That's where I would give policy credit.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And they were willing to adapt when things were obviously not working and cut things off and adjust with pretty high frequency.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

But a lot of it was essentially a random walk where a lot of things that were enabled were

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

then sort of started to interact with each other in the way that you've talked about AI.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

And then they create these other results, which, you know, could not have been pre-planned.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

Well, actually, can I just stop you there because there are a couple of things that you touched on there that I think are really interesting that I'd just like to put on a little bit more.

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So, you know, past results are no guarantee of future returns, right?

Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber

So just because you did it before doesn't mean you can keep doing it.