Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And they have basically devoted no time in the last 45 years to figuring out how to create a demand machine.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Mm-hmm.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So they're just at the very early stages of figuring out that part of the problem.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Right.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Yeah, I mean, I think you can scale that analogy up to China, just its total economy.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
I mean, a lot of the stuff that I've been talking about, about how they got here, I mean, the thing you want to be careful about is this is not the result of some carefully crafted master plan that they knew all along.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
It was a lot of groping and a lot of random stuff.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
They did one thing for one reason and another thing for another reason.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And then through this kind of random process –
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
It all sort of coalesced in the end, but that was not, you know, the amount of intelligent design behind that was, I think, actually quite low.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
They got a few sort of big directional things, I think, correct.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And they stuck with them.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
That's where I would give policy credit.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And they were willing to adapt when things were obviously not working and cut things off and adjust with pretty high frequency.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
But a lot of it was essentially a random walk where a lot of things that were enabled were
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
then sort of started to interact with each other in the way that you've talked about AI.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And then they create these other results, which, you know, could not have been pre-planned.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Well, actually, can I just stop you there because there are a couple of things that you touched on there that I think are really interesting that I'd just like to put on a little bit more.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So, you know, past results are no guarantee of future returns, right?
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So just because you did it before doesn't mean you can keep doing it.