Arthur Kroeber

You know, we're seeing that now in the U.S.

A few years ago, I would have said I had very high confidence that the U.S.

will be able to retain the basic political system and structure it has had for a really long time.

And that's one of its, you know, enduring strengths, that that infrastructure remains.

I'm much less confident about that.

You know, similarly in China, I think you have this problem that they've had a succession of top leaders since Deng Xiaoping, several, and with very different styles and sort of power bases and so forth.

And they've managed to succeed through, you know, a range of these things.

So that gives you more confidence that they're probably more likely to do it right in future than not.

But...

You know, a lot of concerns about that.

And Xi Jinping has basically declared himself president for life.

We haven't been in that situation in China for a long time.

The last time we had that, it did not end well.

And there's always been a trade-off between growth and control in China.

This is kind of the central dilemma that the Communist Party has had.

We want as much growth as possible, but we also want to maintain a pretty high level of control.

And that pendulum has swung much more towards the control side of the equation the last few years, and growth is slowing, right?

So a lot of problems.

However, I would make a couple of points.

One is China has been successful in its industrial policy.