Arthur Kroeber

It's entering society.

What is the innovation cycle that's going to drive it?

So I'm pretty partial.

to theories of innovation like the one that was propounded by a guy called Amar Bhude, I think he's at Michigan State, who wrote a book a number of years ago called The Venturesome Economy.

And what he stresses there is sort of like the feedback loop

between consumer demand and what producers are doing.

And his view is that we focus a lot too much – we focus too much on what the producers are doing and not enough on what the consumers are driving, right?

And I think that's a pretty good insight generally.

I think it helps explain a lot of why the US has maintained its position such a dynamic economy even though a lot of – we've sort of abandoned a lot of the physical processes that underlie it.

And so my question is, okay, economically, when we say AI, what is – what's the most important part of it?

Is it the large language models?

I think the consensus is no.

That's just like the substrate.

And what really matters is the application, specific applications that get built on top of that.

And that's where most of the economic benefit is going to accrue, right?

If that idea is correct, then the question you want to ask yourself is –

what economic system offers the most fertile ground for people figuring out how to use AI in specific zones.

And there I would give the U.S.

a fairly strong edge over China because China has become more self-enclosed.

They have become more obsessed with self-sufficiency.