Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
They've made it very, very difficult to
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
for other people to operate in China, and it's creating some difficulties in people operating outside of China.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So they have this walled garden of Chinese people and whatever they do that creates applications.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
But whoever the big US or Western AI operators have, they have the entire rest of the world to play with.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And that's a much bigger universe where I would sort of rate the likelihood that you get interesting applications.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
higher outside the Chinese walled garden.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
If you want the case for why does China not dominate,
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
I think something like that would be the reason why.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
I have a lot of respect for Victor, and he, I think, has a very good grasp of the Chinese sort of bureaucratic mindset and how political calculations get made, and that's his territory more than mine.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
So I'm very respectful of that view.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
I would, however, tend to think that actually the Chinese are going to be pretty in favor of high-speed AI development.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And the reason is essentially the same reason that I was talking about earlier about informatization and electrification.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
This is essentially a basic enabling technology that is useful for all of the things that can flow from it.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And I guess my hunch would be that they would make the same bet with AI that they made with the internet back in the 90s.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And the internet, they said...
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
yeah, this technology could be dangerous, it could be out of our control, but we think actually it's going to be really beneficial and that we can control it.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And that bet paid off for them very, very well.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
And I think my hunch is that they will look at AI as a similar sort of thing.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
Yes, it's possible that this could sort of get out of our control.
Dwarkesh Podcast
China’s Manufacturing Dominance: State Directives & Ruthless Competition — Arthur Kroeber
But we think on balance, this is really important technology.