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Azeem Azhar

๐Ÿ‘ค Speaker
6838 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So we all know about NVIDIA's GPUs that are powering these systems.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Across roughly the past decade, NVIDIA's GPUs have delivered about double the usable AI throughput that Moore's law would predict.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So Moore's law essentially said, look, every couple of years, there'll be a doubling of

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

of performance capability.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And that has been the clock speed of the technology industry for more than 50 years.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

It's in a way a social agreement between the ecosystem of semiconductor companies that we needed to deliver on that.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Well, the GPUs have delivered far faster over quite a long period of time, over a decade.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

But it doesn't stop there because these chips are really complex.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

They require really cutting edge technologies from, you know, the fabs, the photolithography, chemical washing, the bonding, the packaging.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And yet NVIDIA has pushed up its own clock speed, moving from a two year cycle for new chips to a one year cycle.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Another example of

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

time compression.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

And LLM has, as a result, I think of ChatGPT, that famous paper that now feels so outdated, the stochastic parrot paper, have become that byword for AI.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

They've encapsulated the general transformer architecture that underpins large language models, but other things like diffusion models and state space models.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

The AI index tracks a bunch of notable AI models.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

I'm not quite sure what makes a model notable or not, but it tracks about 61 of them at the end of 2024.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Only 40% were true LLMs.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

Others used different architectures.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

which are needed across domains like time series, electrical systems, proteins, multiomics, and other medical applications.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
The method of invention, AI's new clock speed and why capital markets are confused

So the point is there are more exponentials in this AI wave that are doing their thing than just chat GPT and the large language model.