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Azeem Azhar

šŸ‘¤ Speaker
6838 total appearances

Appearances Over Time

Podcast Appearances

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

Maybe the trend to product agent is going to help you do that.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

Now, look, let's be clear that

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

These are companies talking about what they're doing.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

I'm much more comfortable with what Coinbase said or Micron said, because they put really specific numbers on deployment and results.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

Better, of course, to see what academics are doing.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

And again, another fascinating paper from Chicago Booth, which is a business school by an academic called Supratin Sarkar.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

And this was looking at developers who are using AI tools like Cursor to help them with their software development.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

And if I could summarize it.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

it was that senior developers are better at bossing AI around than junior ones.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

Essentially, AI coding agents were more productive in the hands of experienced developers, not junior ones.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

I mean, in a sense, you'd think, well, a junior one's going to get a leg up and that's going to help them quite a lot.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

And if you think back to the

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

Wharton HBS BCG paper study from a year or so ago, what it showed was that people who were of below average competence were getting better improvements than those who are top quartile, which could proxy in software development to junior and senior.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

So what's going on here?

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

AI autocomplete tools are skewed with juniors.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

Senior developers are much more likely to accept

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

AI generated code than junior developers.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

The reason we'll get into in a second.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

When the academic looked at one particular company and they made AI agents the default, code output jumped by about 39%.

Azeem Azhar's Exponential View
Why the AI productivity gains haven’t arrived - yet

there was a difference in the way the developers approached it.